Quiles, Moto3 title celebrations postponed: the scenarios and the countdown to Indonesia

He’s not mathematically the Moto3 champion yet: Maximo Quiles must wait (at least) for the Indonesia GP in seven days; here are the combinations to make it happen.

With the massive lead that Maximo Quiles has in the Moto3 standings, it’s only a matter of time before he seals the deal. But not today, not in Japan. The protégé of Marc Marquez didn’t just need today’s 2nd place, snatched at the line by David Almansa; he also had to keep an eye on the others’ results. The situation will certainly be much more favorable in seven days in Indonesia: he only needs to finish with a margin of 125 points, and he already has 127 over his closest rival! With five GPs to go in the 2026 season, four riders are still mathematically in the hunt, even if Almansa is at -127, Alvaro Carpe at -135, and Brian Uriarte at -139. Mind-blowing numbers that highlight the dominance of the Moto3 leader, whose future in Moto2 is already set. First, however, he needs to finish the job in the smaller class.

Let’s start with the worst-case scenario: the Aspar Team rider finishes between 6th and 15th. Looking at his results so far, that’s happened only once this year. At the Italian GP he finished 11th and far from the podium, which he reached in every other GP (except Silverstone, when he was injured). In this case he must make sure not to lose more than two points to Almansa, but we also have to consider Alvaro Carpe, 3rd overall, to whom he must not lose more than 10 points.

The perfect scenario is to win the next GP; then whatever the others do becomes totally irrelevant. In the remaining cases, he must watch Almansa’s result: with 2nd place, he just needs his rival not to win; with 3rd, Almansa must be no better than 4th; with Quiles 4th, Almansa must finish no better than 4th; with the Moto3 leader 5th, the Intact GP rider must not do better than 4th. In short, the circumstances are decidedly more favorable for the championship leader to wrap it up.

Yet another GP dominated by the Spaniards: David Almansa wins by 46 thousandths over Maximo Quiles, Alvaro Carpe is third, and Brian Uriarte is 4th (despite a double Long Lap). The best result on record for Finnish rookie Rico Salmela, 5th ahead of Matteo Bertelle, the only Italian to reach the finish, while Guido Pini ended his race early with a crash.

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