Ai Ogura's rise between humility and the numbers: what if he were the anti-Marquez?

Ai Ogura is on the rise this year, yet he rules himself out of the MotoGP title fight: is he right or underestimating himself?

With a double second place at Brno, which contrasts with Bezzecchi’s costly double zero, Ai Ogura is now 5th, 46 points off the Aprilia benchmark and just 6 behind Marc Marquez, who is ahead of him in the overall standings. A very interesting picture in what is only the 9th Grand Prix out of 22 scheduled for the 2026 MotoGP season. But are we really sure the Trackhouse rider should be ruled out of the title fight? The future with Yamaha is distant for now; with Aprilia everything is still possible: here’s why.

During the post-Grand Prix press conference, alongside the surprise of a standout weekend and the regret for a victory only narrowly missed (it would have been a historic feat), there was also a specific question about the championship. Literally, "At the end of the year, do you see yourself fighting for the title?" Ogura replied: "Against these guys? I don’t think I’m in the championship fight, not yet, I have to focus on improving myself." The usual very low profile from the Japanese rider, an outsider who quickly became a figure to watch from his debut year in the Moto3 World Championship. One wonders, though, whether it’s just humility, or if Ogura really is underestimating himself a bit too much.

No one expected him to be in the hunt for the crown; the Moto3 favorites were others, the Spaniards above all. Yet Ai Ogura made a strong impression in a short time, with his first podium in Catalunya standing out in his season of growth. And in his second year in the class, without ever managing to win a GP but with great consistency, he fought for the world title right down to the last race with Arenas and Arbolino! In Moto2, it took him a few more years—amid too many injuries and some mistakes—but stubbornly he kept working, speaking little and putting in plenty of elbow grease, until he rewrote history with the title he clinched in 2024. Despite that, he stated in a press conference that "I never thought I had great talent."

It’s not the time to underestimate Ai Ogura, both for the numbers and for what he has done in the lower classes. But let’s look at the standings: Marco Bezzecchi is still leading with 180 points, followed by Jorge Martin with 172, then Fabio Di Giannantonio with 157, and 4th is Marc Marquez with 140. In fifth place, with 134, is Ai Ogura himself—once again overlooked, but a genuine and growing outsider. His only GP retirement was due to a technical issue; add a couple of zeros in two Sprints, but these are well offset by a double eighth place in Catalunya as his worst results of the year and, above all, the podium at Le Mans and the double P2 at Brno. Better keep an eye on him—the season is still very long.

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