How vulnerable is Marc Márquez in MotoGP at the Sachsenring?

MarWith the Wimbledon final essentially happening at the same time, the tennis comparison came easy to Marc Marquez. "At the Sachsenring I make headlines only if I don’t win, a bit like what used to happen to Rafa Nadal at Roland Garros."

Irrefutable: even if he’s not at 100%, even if he’ll only fully regain his physical form at the end of the summer, the 9-time World Champion remains, no matter what, the big favorite at the 'Ring. After all, he has practically always won there, even with an arm rotated by 34° (2021), missing the target only due to episodes (starting mid-pack in 2024 and still finishing 2nd) or sporting disasters (2023). For him personally, it wouldn’t be a drama if he failed to win in Germany, but what emerged from Friday’s sessions once again points to him as the heavy favorite.

In light of these statements, repeated at the end of Friday as well—saying he had a similar pace to Di Giannantonio, his brother Alex, and Bezzecchi (not exactly true...)—you might say Marc Marquez was managing expectations. However, analyzing the performances and the flow of the two sessions, the Ducati rider remains the benchmark. Then again, weekends can take sudden turns, a bit like the one at the start of FP1 at Omega that slammed him to the ground, aided by a dip (virtually a literal pothole) that also caught out other riders.

Considering that Michelin has to decide on compound choices well in advance for purely production and logistical reasons, they brought all three front options to the Sachsenring (soft, medium, hard), while at the rear they went with soft and medium. From the two practice sessions it was clear that the rear soft lasts a couple of laps. In fact: maximum performance for a single time-attack lap, then degradation kicks in (a drop-off). Its use therefore remains in doubt even for the Sprint, with Marc Marquez limiting his Friday time-attack attempts and focusing more than anyone on the options best suited for Sunday.

On the same set of tires, Marc Marquez ran the hard front and the medium rear. With a race pace that makes him the benchmark at the Sachsenring. True: not with overwhelming superiority, but still with an advantage over the riders he himself (Fabio Di Giannantonio, Alex Marquez, Marco Bezzecchi) identified as his potential rivals. Not sandbagging, but the experience of someone who knows that with this MotoGP, anything is possible. In any case, Marc Marquez has already done much of the groundwork for the weekend, so as not to be vulnerable in his Sachsenring kingdom.