MotoGP Analysis: Watch Out for Marc Márquez—Now More Than Ever, His Tenth World Title Is in His Sights

At Silverstone, Marc Marquez failed to shine, slipping 40 points behind MotoGP leader Jorge Martin. The extraordinary show of strength from the Aprilia RS-GP, both over the short and long run, however, does not change the overall picture: the Catalan superstar remains the main contender for the World Championship.

It may sound a bit bold after what we saw over the weekend. MM93 suffered a grip crisis in the sprint, scraping together just a single point, and he was lackluster in the GP as well, finishing seventh, nine seconds behind the unleashed Raul Fernandez, the exceptional captain of Noale’s starship. The most negative takeaway is that he lost the same-bike comparison to both his younger brother Alex, who put five seconds on him, and Fabio Di Giannantonio. Senior Marquez had gone on vacation as the undisputed King of the Sachsenring, his home garden, but on the unique British circuit he collected just ten points.

You have to read between the lines with GPs as well. Despite the results, Marc is in perfect control of the situation, as his statements attest. On Saturday, after the grip crisis, he said: "Better to lose a few points, which changes nothing, than to get launched into the air: a heavy crash can change everything." It’s obvious, but coming from a rider who has always stared risk straight in the eyes, it’s a surprising concept. In this low-scoring championship, with more manufacturers and riders capable of winning, avoiding mistakes will be key. Marc knows this perfectly well; crashing in the Le Mans Sprint cost him two of the twelve GPs already in the books. Without that error, considering that each round awards 37 points, he would presumably be in the lead. Maximum composure even after this colorless GP: "It’s not the bike’s or the tires’ fault, I just wasn’t there." Marquez could have spun it however he wanted; instead, he chose to speak like a captain. A sign that he sees Silverstone as a mere stopover, certainly not the turning point of the championship.

MotoGP will resume in three weeks at Aragon, where the reigning champion obviously has the double in his sights. There, it will probably be Aprilia doing the chasing. Setting aside the physical setbacks of recent years, at MotorLand he boasts eight victories plus two Sprints: abandon all hope, you who enter? Highly likely. Then comes Misano, where in 2024 Marc Marquez won with the previous year’s Ducati run by Gresini, proving to everyone that even with one and a half arms, he was still the best. The third chance to come back is the following Red Bull Ring in Austria, another traditional Ducati hunting ground. Over these three rounds, Marquez can plausibly make up the current 40-point deficit to Jorge Martin and launch himself into the final sprint: at that point, seven GPs will remain. The story of this World Championship is yet to be written.

With Raul Fernandez’s first triumph, Aprilia this year has taken all four of its riders to the top step of the podium. It’s further proof of their stunning technical growth, but it could also be a boomerang. Fernandez is just 56 points behind Martin and, in between—and very much in the fight—are also Marco Bezzecchi and Ai Ogura. Noale has four winning riders, but now they’re all aiming for the World title. Of these, Martin and Ogura will have even fewer qualms, because in November they’ll say goodbye to join Yamaha. Team orders in motorcycling are an almost purely theoretical concept that rarely works, but here we’re talking about a different situation—one that could ignite a white-hot internal rivalry. Marc Marquez doesn’t have these problems. Pecco Bagnaia has effectively evaporated; it’s hard to see him becoming an in-house threat again. Fabio Di Giannantonio might cause some annoyance, but MM93, who smells a tenth World Championship, cannot be afraid of the Roman. Then there’s Alex Marquez who, if and when it matters, certainly won’t put a spoke in big brother Marc’s wheels.

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